Thursday, April 05, 2007

the unbiased view of the future of Billy Donovan

Like I said in the last post, the Gator Nation is fretting over whether or not they'll lose their basketball coach to either the University of Kentucky or the NBA....specifically the Miami Heat. I don't think they have a lot to worry about. Here's why...

People say he's done all he can do at the University of Florida. He won back to back championships. The expectations from the fans would be unrealistic now. They wouldn't be happy now unless the team goes to the final four every year. Maybe and maybe not. Personally from what I've seen, they're pretty grateful for what they have. I don't know how long it takes for that to translate into "What have you done for me lately?" The real question though, is, how is that any different at the University of Kentucky? If there's any place that defines unrealistic expectations in college basketball, throw that magnifying glass directly on the bluegrass state. Ask Tubby Smith what happens there if you're successful, but not sucessful enough to placate that fan base. I think Kentucky fan thinks way too much of his program, and is in for the same rude awakening Alabama fan got in football when they fired Mike Shula and expected everyone to beat down their door to coach their team because they're...well...they're Alabama. Surprise surprise, when the coaching world pretty much said..."that and four bucks gets me a cup of coffee at Starbucks. What else ya got?"

The University of Kentucky has a rich basketball tradition. At the University of Florida, Billy will always play second fiddle to football. Again..maybe and maybe not. If he goes to Kentucky, he is part of someone elses story, and he's a footnote in it. His team plays in the house that Rupp built; not the house that Donovan built. At Florida there is no rich basketball tradition, but that's changing and Billy Donovan is the reason why. He's building something that has nobody's name on it but his. If he keeps taking on the challenge that he's already in the middle of, he can build his own legacy, and the O'Connell center eventually becomes the house that Donovan built. Maybe basketball becomes the equal of football at Florida, and if it does, he can claim the credit for that. He has ties in both places, so I don't think there's a stronger emotional pull to Kentucky than UF, but there might be. I'm not inside Billy Donovan's head, so I don't know.

If he goes to Kentucky, his biggest rival will be Rick Pitino at Louisville...OUCH....his coach when he was in college, the UK coach when he was an assistant...his mentor...his friend. Don't know if this makes any difference at all, but it's worth mentioning.

Kentucky will throw stupid money at him to coach. Yes they will, but if money is the deciding factor, the Miami Heat will outspend Kentucky. Lost in here somewhere is the fact that the University of Florida isn't exactly wallowing in the poor house. I think they can give Billy enough to make him want to stay.

In the end, I think Florida can pay him enough to make him stay, and the allure of building his own program, his own legacy where there was nothing, will be what keeps him in Gainsville. Then again, I've been wrong before. Maybe it'll be the fact that he pretty much built a school for a local Catholic Church so his kids could attend a Catholic school...and they haven't finished there yet. Then again, maybe he likes horse racing and he can watch more of that in Kentucky. We shall see, but I don't think he's moving.

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